Using risk of crime detection to study change in mechanisms of decision making.

Perceptions of crime detection risk (e.g., risk of arrest) play an integral role in the criminal decision-making process. Yet, the sources of variation in those perceptions are not well understood. Do individuals respond to changes in legal policy or is perception of detection risk shaped like other perceptions-by experience, heuristics, and with biases? We applied a developmental perspective to study self-reported perception of detection risk. We test four hypotheses against data from the Dunedin Longitudinal Study (analytic sample of N = 985 New Zealanders), a study that spans 20 years of development (Ages 18-38, years 1990-2011). We reach four conclusions: (1) people form their perception of detection risk early in the life course; (2) perception of detection risk may be general rather than unique to each crime type; (3) population-level perceptions are stable between adolescence and adulthood; but (4) people update their perceptions when their life circumstances change. The importance of these findings for future theoretical and policy work is considered. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

The socioeconomic consequences of loneliness: Evidence from a nationally representative longitudinal study of young adults.

The negative health consequences of loneliness have led to increasing concern about the economic cost of loneliness in recent years. Loneliness may also incur an economic burden more directly, by impacting socioeconomic position. Much of the research to date has focused on employment status which may not fully capture socioeconomic position and has relied on cross-sectional data, leaving questions around the robustness of the association and reverse causation. The present study used longitudinal data to test prospective associations between loneliness and multiple indicators of social position in young adulthood, specifically, whether participants who were lonelier at age 12 were more likely to be out of employment, education and training (NEET) and lower on employability and subjective social status as young adults. The data were drawn from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a birth cohort of 2,232 individuals born in England and Wales during 1994-1995. Loneliness and subjective social status were measured at ages 12, 18 and 26. Employability and NEET status were assessed at age 18. Findings indicate that greater loneliness at age 12 was prospectively associated with reduced employability and lower social status in young adulthood. The association between loneliness and lower social status in young adulthood was robust when controlling for a range of confounders using a sibling-control design. Results also indicate that loneliness is unidirectionally associated with reduced subjective social status across adolescence and young adulthood. Overall, our findings suggest that loneliness may have direct costs to the economy resulting from reduced employability and social position, underlining the importance of addressing loneliness early in life.

Dementia, dementia's risk factors and premorbid brain structure are concentrated in disadvantaged areas: National register and birth-cohort geographic analyses.

INTRODUCTION: Dementia risk may be elevated in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Reasons for this remain unclear, and this elevation has yet to be shown at a national population level. METHODS: We tested whether dementia was more prevalent in disadvantaged neighborhoods across the New Zealand population (N = 1.41 million analytic sample) over a 20-year observation. We then tested whether premorbid dementia risk factors and MRI-measured brain-structure antecedents were more prevalent among midlife residents of disadvantaged neighborhoods in a population-representative NZ-birth-cohort (N = 938 analytic sample). RESULTS: People residing in disadvantaged neighborhoods were at greater risk of dementia (HR per-quintile-disadvantage-increase = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.08-1.10) and, decades before clinical endpoints typically emerge, evidenced elevated dementia-risk scores (CAIDE, LIBRA, Lancet, ANU-ADRI, DunedinARB; ß's 0.31-0.39) and displayed dementia-associated brain structural deficits and cognitive difficulties/decline. DISCUSSION: Disadvantaged neighborhoods have more residents with dementia, and decades before dementia is diagnosed, residents have more dementia-risk factors and brain-structure antecedents. Whether or not neighborhoods causally influence risk, they may offer scalable opportunities for primary dementia prevention.

Educational Mobility, Pace of Aging, and Lifespan Among Participants in the Framingham Heart Study.

Importance: People who complete more education live longer lives with better health. New evidence suggests that these benefits operate through a slowed pace of biological aging. If so, measurements of the pace of biological aging could offer intermediate end points for studies of how interventions to promote education will affect healthy longevity. Objective: To test the hypothesis that upward educational mobility is associated with a slower pace of biological aging and increased longevity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study analyzed data from 3 generations of participants in the Framingham Heart Study: (1) the original cohort, enrolled beginning in 1948; (2) the Offspring cohort, enrolled beginning in 1971; and (3) the Gen3 cohort, enrolled beginning in 2002. A 3-generation database was constructed to quantify intergenerational educational mobility. Mobility data were linked with blood DNA-methylation data collected from the Offspring cohort in 2005 to 2008 (n = 1652) and the Gen3 cohort in 2009 to 2011 (n = 1449). Follow-up is ongoing. Data analysis was conducted from June 2022 to November 2023 using data obtained from the National Institutes of Health database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP). Exposure: Educational mobility was measured by comparing participants' educational outcomes with those of their parents. Main Outcomes and Measures: The pace of biological aging was measured from whole-blood DNA-methylation data using the DunedinPACE epigenetic clock. For comparison purposes, the analysis was repeated using 4 other epigenetic clocks. Survival follow-up was conducted through 2019. Results: This study analyzed data from 3101 participants from the Framingham Heart Study; 1652 were in the Offspring cohort (mean [SD] age, 65.57 [9.22] years; 764 [46.2%] male) and 1449 were in the Gen3 cohort (mean [SD] age, 45.38 [7.83] years; 691 [47.7%] male). Participants who were upwardly mobile in educational terms tended to have slower pace of aging in later life (r = -0.18 [95% CI, -0.23 to -0.13]; P < .001). This pattern of association was similar across generations and held in within-family sibling comparisons. There were 402 Offspring cohort participants who died over the follow-up period. Upward educational mobility was associated with lower mortality risk (hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81 to 0.98]; P = .01). Slower pace of aging accounted for approximately half of this association. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study's findings support the hypothesis that interventions to promote educational attainment may slow the pace of biological aging and promote longevity. Epigenetic clocks have potential as near-term outcome measures of intervention effects on healthy aging. Experimental evidence is needed to confirm findings.

A blood biomarker of the pace of aging is associated with brain structure: replication across three cohorts.

Biological aging is the correlated decline of multi-organ system integrity central to the etiology of many age-related diseases. A novel epigenetic measure of biological aging, DunedinPACE, is associated with cognitive dysfunction, incident dementia, and mortality. Here, we tested for associations between DunedinPACE and structural MRI phenotypes in three datasets spanning midlife to advanced age: the Dunedin Study (age=45 years), the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort (mean age=63 years), and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (mean age=75 years). We also tested four additional epigenetic measures of aging: the Horvath clock, the Hannum clock, PhenoAge, and GrimAge. Across all datasets (total N observations=3380; total N individuals=2322), faster DunedinPACE was associated with lower total brain volume, lower hippocampal volume, greater burden of white matter microlesions, and thinner cortex. Across all measures, DunedinPACE and GrimAge had the strongest and most consistent associations with brain phenotypes. Our findings suggest that single timepoint measures of multi-organ decline such as DunedinPACE could be useful for gauging nervous system health.

Diet, Pace of Biological Aging, and Risk of Dementia in the Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: People who eat healthier diets are less likely to develop dementia, but the biological mechanism of this protection is not well understood. We tested the hypothesis that healthy diet protects against dementia because it slows the pace of biological aging. METHODS: We analyzed Framingham Offspring Cohort data. We included participants ≥60 years-old, free of dementia and having dietary, epigenetic, and follow-up data. We assessed healthy diet as long-term adherence to the Mediterranean-Dash Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay diet (MIND, over 4 visits spanning 1991-2008). We measured the pace of aging from blood DNA methylation data collected in 2005-2008 using the DunedinPACE epigenetic clock. Incident dementia and mortality were defined using study records compiled from 2005 to 2008 visit through 2018. RESULTS: Of n = 1,644 included participants (mean age 69.6, 54% female), n = 140 developed dementia and n = 471 died over 14 years of follow-up. Greater MIND score was associated with slower DunedinPACE and reduced risks for dementia and mortality. Slower DunedinPACE was associated with reduced risks for dementia and mortality. In mediation analysis, slower DunedinPACE accounted for 27% of the diet-dementia association and 57% of the diet-mortality association. INTERPRETATION: Findings suggest that slower pace of aging mediates part of the relationship of healthy diet with reduced dementia risk. Monitoring pace of aging may inform dementia prevention. However, a large fraction of the diet-dementia association remains unexplained and may reflect direct connections between diet and brain aging that do not overlap other organ systems. Investigation of brain-specific mechanisms in well-designed mediation studies is warranted. ANN NEUROL 2024.

The general factor of psychopathology (p): Choosing among competing models and interpreting p.

Over the past 10 years, the general factor of psychopathology, p, has attracted interest and scrutiny. We review the history of the idea that all mental disorders share something in common, p; how we arrived at this idea; and how it became conflated with a statistical representation, the Bi-Factor Model. We then leverage the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) longitudinal twin study to examine the properties and nomological network of different statistical representations of p. We find that p performed similarly regardless of how it was modelled, suggesting that if the sample and content are the same the resulting p factor will be similar. We suggest that the meaning of p is not to be found by dueling over statistical models but by conducting well-specified criterion-validation studies and developing new measurement approaches. We outline new directions to refresh research efforts to uncover what all mental disorders have in common.

Posttraumatic stress disorder, trauma, and accelerated biological aging among post-9/11 veterans.

People who experience trauma and develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are at increased risk for poor health. One mechanism that could explain this risk is accelerated biological aging, which is associated with the accumulation of chronic diseases, disability, and premature mortality. Using data from 2309 post-9/11 United States military veterans who participated in the VISN 6 MIRECC's Post-Deployment Mental Health Study, we tested whether PTSD and trauma exposure were associated with accelerated rate of biological aging, assessed using a validated DNA methylation (DNAm) measure of epigenetic aging-DunedinPACE. Veterans with current PTSD were aging faster than those who did not have current PTSD, ß = 0.18, 95% CI [0.11, 0.27], p < .001. This effect represented an additional 0.4 months of biological aging each year. Veterans were also aging faster if they reported more PTSD symptoms, ß = 0.13, 95% CI [0.09, 0.16], p < 0.001, or higher levels of trauma exposure, ß = 0.09, 95% CI [0.05, 0.13], p < 0.001. Notably, veterans with past PTSD were aging more slowly than those with current PTSD, ß = -0.21, 95% CI [-0.35, -0.07], p = .003. All reported results accounted for age, gender, self-reported race/ethnicity, and education, and remained when controlling for smoking. Our findings suggest that an accelerated rate of biological aging could help explain how PTSD contributes to poor health and highlights the potential benefits of providing efficacious treatment to populations at increased risk of trauma and PTSD.

Social isolation, loneliness, and inflammation: A multi-cohort investigation in early and mid-adulthood.

Social isolation and loneliness have been associated with poor health and increased risk for mortality, and inflammation might explain this link. We used data from the Danish TRIAGE Study of acutely admitted medical patients (N = 6,144, mean age 60 years), and from two population-representative birth cohorts: the New Zealand Dunedin Longitudinal Study (N = 881, age 45) and the UK Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study (N = 1448, age 18), to investigate associations of social isolation with three markers of systemic inflammation: C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and a newer inflammation marker, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), which is thought to index systemic chronic inflammation. In the TRIAGE Study, socially isolated patients (those living alone) had significantly higher median levels of suPAR (but not CRP or IL-6) compared with patients not living by themselves. Social isolation prospectively measured in childhood was longitudinally associated with higher CRP, IL-6, and suPAR levels in adulthood (at age 45 in the Dunedin Study and age 18 in the E-Risk Study), but only suPAR remained associated after controlling for covariates. Dunedin Study participants who reported loneliness at age 38 or age 45 had elevated suPAR at age 45. In contrast, E-Risk Study participants reporting loneliness at age 18 did not show any elevated markers of inflammation. In conclusion, social isolation was robustly associated with increased inflammation in adulthood, both in medical patients and in the general population. It was associated in particular with systemic chronic inflammation, evident from the consistently stronger associations with suPAR than other inflammation biomarkers.

Accelerated Pace of Aging in Schizophrenia: Five Case-Control Studies.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia is associated with increased risk of developing multiple aging-related diseases, including metabolic, respiratory, and cardiovascular diseases, and Alzheimer's and related dementias, leading to the hypothesis that schizophrenia is accompanied by accelerated biological aging. This has been difficult to test because there is no widely accepted measure of biological aging. Epigenetic clocks are promising algorithms that are used to calculate biological age on the basis of information from combined cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites (CpGs) across the genome, but they have yielded inconsistent and often negative results about the association between schizophrenia and accelerated aging. Here, we tested the schizophrenia-aging hypothesis using a DNA methylation measure that is uniquely designed to predict an individual's rate of aging. METHODS: We brought together 5 case-control datasets to calculate DunedinPACE (Pace of Aging Calculated from the Epigenome), a new measure trained on longitudinal data to detect differences between people in their pace of aging over time. Data were available from 1812 psychosis cases (schizophrenia or first-episode psychosis) and 1753 controls. Mean chronological age was 38.9 (SD = 13.6) years. RESULTS: We observed consistent associations across datasets between schizophrenia and accelerated aging as measured by DunedinPACE. These associations were not attributable to tobacco smoking or clozapine medication. CONCLUSIONS: Schizophrenia is accompanied by accelerated biological aging by midlife. This may explain the wide-ranging risk among people with schizophrenia for developing multiple different age-related physical diseases, including metabolic, respiratory, and cardiovascular diseases, and dementia. Measures of biological aging could prove valuable for assessing patients' risk for physical and cognitive decline and for evaluating intervention effectiveness.

Childhood caries is associated with poor health and a faster pace of aging by midlife.

OBJECTIVES: Childhood caries is associated with poorer self-rated general health in adulthood, but it remains unclear whether that holds for physical health and aging. The aim of this study was to identify whether age-5 caries is associated with (a) biomarkers for poor physical health, and (b) the pace of aging (PoA) by age 45 years. METHODS: Participants are members of the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study birth cohort. At age 45, 94.1% (n = 938) of those still alive took part. Data on age-5 caries experience and age-45 health biomarkers were collected. The PoA captures age-related decline across the cardiovascular, metabolic, renal, immune, dental and pulmonary systems from age 26 to 45 years. We used (a) generalized estimating equations to examine associations between age-5 caries and poor physical health by age 45 years, and (b) ordinary least squares regression to examine whether age-5 caries was associated with the PoA. Analyses adjusted for sex, perinatal health, childhood SES and childhood IQ. RESULTS: High caries experience at age-5 was associated with higher risk for some metabolic abnormalities, including BMI ≥30, high waist circumference, and high serum leptin. Those with high caries experience at age-5 were aging at a faster rate by age 45 years than those who had been caries-free. CONCLUSIONS: Oral health is essential for wellbeing. Poor oral health can be an early signal of a trajectory towards poor health in adulthood. Management for both conditions should be better-integrated; and integrated population-level prevention strategies should be foundational to any health system.

Test-retest reliability and predictive utility of a macroscale principal functional connectivity gradient.

Mapping individual differences in brain function has been hampered by poor reliability as well as limited interpretability. Leveraging patterns of brain-wide functional connectivity (FC) offers some promise in this endeavor. In particular, a macroscale principal FC gradient that recapitulates a hierarchical organization spanning molecular, cellular, and circuit level features along a sensory-to-association cortical axis has emerged as both a parsimonious and interpretable measure of individual differences in behavior. However, the measurement reliabilities of this FC gradient have not been fully evaluated. Here, we assess the reliabilities of both global and regional principal FC gradient measures using test-retest data from the young adult Human Connectome Project (HCP-YA) and the Dunedin Study. Analyses revealed that the reliabilities of principal FC gradient measures were (1) consistently higher than those for traditional edge-wise FC measures, (2) higher for FC measures derived from general FC (GFC) in comparison with resting-state FC, and (3) higher for longer scan lengths. We additionally examined the relative utility of these principal FC gradient measures in predicting cognition and aging in both datasets as well as the HCP-aging dataset. These analyses revealed that regional FC gradient measures and global gradient range were significantly associated with aging in all three datasets, and moderately associated with cognition in the HCP-YA and Dunedin Study datasets, reflecting contractions and expansions of the cortical hierarchy, respectively. Collectively, these results demonstrate that measures of the principal FC gradient, especially derived using GFC, effectively capture a reliable feature of the human brain subject to interpretable and biologically meaningful individual variation, offering some advantages over traditional edge-wise FC measures in the search for brain-behavior associations.

A blood biomarker of accelerated aging in the body associates with worse structural integrity in the brain: replication across three cohorts.

Biological aging is the correlated decline of multi-organ system integrity central to the etiology of many age-related diseases. A novel epigenetic measure of biological aging, DunedinPACE, is associated with cognitive dysfunction, incident dementia, and mortality. Here, we tested for associations between DunedinPACE and structural MRI phenotypes in three datasets spanning midlife to advanced age: the Dunedin Study (age=45 years), the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort (mean age=63 years), and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (mean age=75 years). We also tested four additional epigenetic measures of aging: the Horvath clock, the Hannum clock, PhenoAge, and GrimAge. Across all datasets (total N observations=3,380; total N individuals=2,322), faster DunedinPACE was associated with lower total brain volume, lower hippocampal volume, and thinner cortex. In two datasets, faster DunedinPACE was associated with greater burden of white matter hyperintensities. Across all measures, DunedinPACE and GrimAge had the strongest and most consistent associations with brain phenotypes. Our findings suggest that single timepoint measures of multi-organ decline such as DunedinPACE could be useful for gauging nervous system health.

Do polygenic indices capture "direct" effects on child externalizing behavior? Within-family analyses in two longitudinal birth cohorts.

Behaviors and disorders characterized by difficulties with self-regulation, such as problematic substance use, antisocial behavior, and symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), incur high costs for individuals, families, and communities. These externalizing behaviors often appear early in the life course and can have far-reaching consequences. Researchers have long been interested in direct measurements of genetic risk for externalizing behaviors, which can be incorporated alongside other known risk factors to improve efforts at early identification and intervention. In a preregistered analysis drawing on data from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study (N=862 twins) and the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; N=2,824 parent-child trios), two longitudinal cohorts from the UK, we leveraged molecular genetic data and within-family designs to test for genetic effects on externalizing behavior that are unbiased by the common sources of environmental confounding. Results are consistent with the conclusion that an externalizing polygenic index (PGI) captures causal effects of genetic variants on externalizing problems in children and adolescents, with an effect size that is comparable to those observed for other established risk factors in the research literature on externalizing behavior. Additionally, we find that polygenic associations vary across development (peaking from age 5-10 years), that parental genetics (assortment and parent-specific effects) and family-level covariates affect prediction little, and that sex differences in polygenic prediction are present but only detectable using within-family comparisons. Based on these findings, we believe that the PGI for externalizing behavior is a promising means for studying the development of disruptive behaviors across child development.

Diet, pace of biological aging, and risk of dementia in the Framingham Heart Study.

INTRODUCTION: We tested the hypothesis that healthy diet protects against dementia because it slows the pace of biological aging. METHODS: We analyzed Framingham Offspring Cohort data (≥60y). We measured healthy diet using the Dietary Guideline for Americans (DGA, 3 visits 1991-2008), pace of aging using the DunedinPACE epigenetic clock (2005-2008), and incident dementia and mortality using records (compiled 2005-2018). RESULTS: Of n=1,525 included participants (mean age 69.7, 54% female), n=129 developed dementia and n=432 died over follow-up. Greater DGA adherence was associated with slower DunedinPACE and reduced risks for dementia and mortality. Slower DunedinPACE was associated with reduced risks for dementia and mortality. Slower DunedinPACE accounted for 15% of the DGA association with dementia and 39% of the DGA association with mortality. DISCUSSION: Findings suggest that slower pace of aging mediates part of the relationship of healthy diet with reduced dementia risk. Monitoring pace of aging may inform dementia prevention.

Lifetime Incidence of Treated Mental Health Disorders and Psychotropic Drug Prescriptions and Associated Socioeconomic Functioning.

Importance: Few studies have estimated the lifetime incidence of mental health disorders and the association with socioeconomic functioning. Objective: To investigate whether the lifetime incidence of treated mental health disorders is substantially higher than previously reported and estimate associations with long-term socioeconomic difficulties. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide population-based register linkage study includes a randomly selected sample of 1.5 million individuals from the population of Denmark from 1995 to 2018. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to March 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime incidence of any treated mental health disorder in the general population was estimated from birth to age 100 years taking into account the competing risk of all-cause death and associations with socioeconomic functioning. Register measures were (1) from hospitals, a diagnosis of any mental health disorder at an inpatient/outpatient hospital contact; (2) from hospitals and prescription statistics, any mental health disorder/psychotropic prescription, including a hospital-contact diagnosis, or any psychotropic medication prescribed by physicians, including general practitioners or private psychiatrists; and (3) socioeconomic functioning as indicated by highest educational achievement, employment, income, residential status, and marital status. Results: Among a sample of 462 864 individuals with any mental health disorder, the median (IQR) age was 36.6 years (21.0-53.6 years), 233 747 (50.5%) were male, and 229 117 (49.5%) were female. Of these, 112 641 were registered with a hospital-contact mental health disorder diagnosis and 422 080 with a prescription of psychotropic medication. The cumulative incidence of a hospital-contact mental health disorder diagnosis was 29.0% (95% CI, 28.8-29.1), 31.8% (95% CI, 31.6-32.0) for females, and 26.1% (95% CI, 25.9-26.3) for males. When also considering psychotropic prescriptions, the cumulative incidence of any mental health disorder/psychotropic prescription was 82.6% (95% CI, 82.4-82.6), 87.5% (95% CI, 87.4-87.7) for females, and 76.7% (95% CI, 76.5-76.8) for males. Socioeconomic difficulties were associated with mental health disorder/psychotropic prescriptions, including lower income (hazard ratio [HR], 1.55; 95% CI, 1.53-1.56), increased unemployment or disability benefit (HR, 2.50; 95% CI, 2.47-2.53), and a greater likelihood of living alone (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.76-1.80) and being unmarried (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 2.01-2.04) during long-term follow-up. These rates were confirmed in 4 sensitivity analyses with the lowest being 74.8% (95% CI, 74.7-75.0) (1) by using varying exclusion periods, (2) by excluding prescriptions of anxiolytics and quetiapine that may be used for off-label indications, (3) by defining any mental health disorder/psychotropic prescription as any hospital-contact mental health disorder diagnosis or any psychotropic medication prescribed at least 2 times, and (4) by excluding individuals with somatic diagnoses for which psychotropics may be prescribed off-label. Conclusions and Relevance: This registry study of data from a large representative sample of the Danish population showed that the majority of individuals either received a diagnosis of a mental health disorder or were prescribed psychotropic medication during their lifetime, which was associated with subsequent socioeconomic difficulties. These findings may help change our understanding of normalcy and mental illness, reduce stigmatization, and further prompt rethinking the primary prevention of mental illness and future mental health clinical resources.

Worldwide Well-Being: Simulated Twins Reveal Genetic and (Hidden) Environmental Influences.

What are the major sources of worldwide variability in subjective well-being (SWB)? Twin and family studies of SWB have found substantial heritability and strong effects from unique environments but virtually no effects from shared environments. However, extant findings are not necessarily valid at the global level. Prior studies have examined within-countries variability but did not take into account mean differences across nations. In this article, we aim to estimate the effects of genetic factors, individual environmental exposures, and shared environments for the global population. We combine a set of knowns from national well-being studies (means and standard deviations) and behavioral-genetic studies (heritability) to model a scenario of twin studies across 157 countries. For each country, we simulate data for a set of twin pairs and pool the data into a global sample. We find a worldwide heritability of 31% to 32% for SWB. Individual environmental factors explain 46% to 52% of the variance (including measurement error), and shared environments account for 16% to 23% of the global variance in SWB. Worldwide, well-being is somewhat less heritable than within nations. In contrast to previous within-countries studies, we find a notable effect of shared environments. This effect is not limited to within families but operates at a national level.

Genetic associations with parental investment from conception to wealth inheritance in six cohorts.

Genetic inheritance is not the only way parents' genes may affect children. It is also possible that parents' genes are associated with investments into children's development. We examined evidence for links between parental genetics and parental investments, from the prenatal period through to adulthood, using data from six population-based cohorts in the UK, US and New Zealand, together totalling 36,566 parents. Our findings revealed associations between parental genetics-summarized in a genome-wide polygenic score-and parental behaviour across development, from smoking in pregnancy, breastfeeding in infancy, parenting in childhood and adolescence, to leaving a wealth inheritance to adult children. Effect sizes tended to be small at any given time point, ranging from RR = 1.12 (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 1.09, 1.15) to RR = 0.76 (95%CI 0.72, 0.80) during the prenatal period and infancy; ß = 0.07 (95%CI 0.04, 0.11) to ß = 0.29 (95%CI 0.27, 0.32) in childhood and adolescence, and RR = 1.04 (95%CI 1.01, 1.06) to RR = 1.11 (95%CI 1.07, 1.15) in adulthood. There was evidence for accumulating effects across development, ranging from ß = 0.15 (95%CI 0.11, 0.18) to ß = 0.23 (95%CI 0.16, 0.29) depending on cohort. Our findings are consistent with the interpretation that parents pass on advantages to offspring not only via direct genetic transmission or purely environmental paths, but also via genetic associations with parental investment from conception to wealth inheritance.

Tracing the origins of midlife despair: association of psychopathology during adolescence with a syndrome of despair-related maladies at midlife.

BACKGROUND: Midlife adults are experiencing a crisis of deaths of despair (i.e. deaths from suicide, drug overdose, and alcohol-related liver disease). We tested the hypothesis that a syndrome of despair-related maladies at midlife is preceded by psychopathology during adolescence. METHODS: Participants are members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-73 and followed to age 45 years, with 94% retention. Adolescent mental disorders were assessed in three diagnostic assessments at ages 11, 13, and 15 years. Indicators of despair-related maladies across four domains - suicidality, substance misuse, sleep problems, and pain - were assessed at age 45 using multi-modal measures including self-report, informant-report, and national register data. RESULTS: We identified and validated a syndrome of despair-related maladies at midlife involving suicidality, substance misuse, sleep problems, and pain. Adults who exhibited a more severe syndrome of despair-related maladies at midlife tended to have had early-onset emotional and behavioral disorders [ß = 0.23, 95% CI (0.16-0.30), p < 0.001], even after adjusting for sex, childhood SES, and childhood IQ. A more pronounced midlife despair syndrome was observed among adults who, as adolescents, were diagnosed with a greater number of mental disorders [ß = 0.26, 95% CI (0.19-0.33), p < 0.001]. Tests of diagnostic specificity revealed that associations generalized across different adolescent mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Midlife adults who exhibited a more severe syndrome of despair-related maladies tended to have had psychopathology as adolescents. Prevention and treatment of adolescent psychopathology may mitigate despair-related maladies at midlife and ultimately reduce deaths of despair.

A comparison of feature selection methodologies and learning algorithms in the development of a DNA methylation-based telomere length estimator.

BACKGROUND: The field of epigenomics holds great promise in understanding and treating disease with advances in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence being vitally important in this pursuit. Increasingly, research now utilises DNA methylation measures at cytosine-guanine dinucleotides (CpG) to detect disease and estimate biological traits such as aging. Given the challenge of high dimensionality of DNA methylation data, feature-selection techniques are commonly employed to reduce dimensionality and identify the most important subset of features. In this study, our aim was to test and compare a range of feature-selection methods and ML algorithms in the development of a novel DNA methylation-based telomere length (TL) estimator. We utilised both nested cross-validation and two independent test sets for the comparisons. RESULTS: We found that principal component analysis in advance of elastic net regression led to the overall best performing estimator when evaluated using a nested cross-validation analysis and two independent test cohorts. This approach achieved a correlation between estimated and actual TL of 0.295 (83.4% CI [0.201, 0.384]) on the EXTEND test data set. Contrastingly, the baseline model of elastic net regression with no prior feature reduction stage performed less well in general-suggesting a prior feature-selection stage may have important utility. A previously developed TL estimator, DNAmTL, achieved a correlation of 0.216 (83.4% CI [0.118, 0.310]) on the EXTEND data. Additionally, we observed that different DNA methylation-based TL estimators, which have few common CpGs, are associated with many of the same biological entities. CONCLUSIONS: The variance in performance across tested approaches shows that estimators are sensitive to data set heterogeneity and the development of an optimal DNA methylation-based estimator should benefit from the robust methodological approach used in this study. Moreover, our methodology which utilises a range of feature-selection approaches and ML algorithms could be applied to other biological markers and disease phenotypes, to examine their relationship with DNA methylation and predictive value.